I had an opportunity today to write an article on Peak Oil and research of course was part of it. I have no doubts any longer of whether it will happen…..or as some think, has happened…but where to go from here is undecided.
I’m cognizant of how dependent I am on our energy reserves, that’s not the issue. When I blow dry my hair, put a load of clothes in the dryer or make coffee, I think of Peak Oil. I drive my car, buy groceries, even turn up the thermostat on these cold winter nights and I think about it. Those examples are easy to fix but the important issues still remain unanswered.
I read an opinion today that our attempts at conservation might hurt the situation rather than help. Did I miss something here? What are we suppose to do, sit back and accept the consequences without attempting to make changes?
I feel I should have been doing more years ago instead of waiting until this crisis. I took everything for granted as I’m sure most American’s have.
If I reduce my consumption by 3% per year as advocated by the Oil Depletion Protocol, just what does that entail? I guess I’ll have to take stock of my energy usage to begin that quest.
I know Matt Savinar paints a pretty gloomy picture with regard to the manufacture of alternative energy sources like solar panels and wind turbines. Yes, it’s true that our current methods of manufacturing those items require fossil fuel inputs, but the resulting clean energy will offset a far greater amount of fossil fuels than could ever be consumed in manufacture. The net gain is enormous — Matt’s numbers should not be interpreted as a reason to avoid action, but rather as a measure of the long-term problem.
It is incredibly costly and time-consuming to replace the world’s infrastructure, which is the main thrust at LATOC. There will not be enough solar panels and electric cars to go around by the time the serious shocks of Peak Oil hit, but that shouldn’t discourage you from preparing yourself. There will likely be casualties in the aftermath, but the only thing you can do to help others avoid catastrophe is exactly what you’re doing — spread the word and encourage people to make preparations.
By: PeakEngineer on February 16, 2007
at 1:15 am
Thanks for your reply. I’m confused when I read the information I find. It seems there are two sides to this story, not unlike our political system! I’d like to be able to propose a balance here, give concrete examples of how to manage this but I’m not sure where to start myself.
You seem to have a handle on it, how do I sift the information I find? It would take hours of research on my part to recommend strategies that will be helpful.
If you could lend some light – I’d appreciate it. My impression from your website is that you are proposing communities for the aftermath of Peak Oil, correct?
By: Cathy on February 17, 2007
at 5:28 pm
While I’m still a relative newcomer to Peak Oil, I’ve been researching challenges and solutions feverishly since I stumbled upon the topic. The strategy I’m starting to develop is this: First, focus on yourself. This isn’t selfishness — if you don’t tend to your own needs before worrying about the rest of the world, all the knowledge you’re trying to share and build could be lost.
Even looking at bare survival is overwhelming. I would suggest first focusing on addictions & dependencies — cut out alcohol, caffeine, cigarettes — as you’ll have enough to worry about later on without the added burden of caffeine headaches and smoke cravings when these things become scarce. Next, look at pure survival as a hunter-gatherer. Find out what wild edibles grow around your area, learn to recognize and process them. Learn how to construct basic traps and how to prepare & cook animals. Learn how to collect water, filter it, and make fire.
Moving up the next rung of civilization, learn to grow your own food. Focus on labor-saving techniques like square-foot gardening, heavy mulching (e.g. Ruth Stout), and companion planting. While time is growing short to develop these skills, it’s best to start small and build from season to season until you have enough to feed yourself for at least a year. Hand-in-hand with growing your own food is securing a water source, which (more often than not) probably involves collecting rainwater in large containers.
Okay, now you can at least survive a total societal collapse (if it indeed plays out that way) and you are free to start learning how to thrive. That’s the idea behind the example Homestead Project on PeakOilDesign — you’re considering every aspect of your future, how they interplay, and you’re looking at every likely threat to the homestead’s function. This extends to raising animals and intensive gardening, making clothing, building (or modifying) a house, and producing energy.
At this point, you’ve mapped out your basic personal survival. Now is the time to start exploring survival for a larger group. I personally like the idea of small communities, but I also think it’s a natural conclusion in a suddenly low-energy world. Without major infrastructure or vast amounts of usable energy, local community-centered societies are the only immediate possibility. Collective civilization will have to wait a while.
Detailed planning is important to ensure a community’s long-term viability, and that’s the next project I plan to tackle in the near future. This is a fairly alien concept in America, as evidenced by the unchecked sprawl in every locale. A community allows individuals to specialize in certain areas (but perhaps not too much, or we could find ourselves without needed skills again if disaster strikes) and distribute the workload. There is strength in a close-knit community as well as increased security.
Farther down the line, communities can gain strength from each other and build networks of mutual trade and support. There will likely be a lot of dark forces our there (e.g. displaced gangs, paramilitary groups) that a single community could not hope to conquer. Alliances of healthy communities should have a much easier time dealing with those types of undesirables.
So, it’s a long road to fully prepare, which is probably why there is so much jumbled information out there. You have to start small and dream big, all the while increasing your chances of not only surviving, but thriving.
(Hmm…this is good stuff. I might roll this into a post on my own blog if it’s alright with you
)
By: PeakEngineer on February 22, 2007
at 12:19 am
That’s exactly what should be on your front page! I’m sure others are as confused as I am about where to start and what to do. Perfect! Your site could be the “go to” place with answers like this! (Now mine will be too, thanks!) LOL
Seriously, let me know if you would like me to delete this comment. I’ve been researching SEO and duplicate content filters might knock us both off the charts if it’s word for word. I would simply point everyone to your blog.
Again, yhanks for answering my questions. I have a better idea of my priorities or at least, what they should be. It gives me something to work toward.
By: Cathy on February 22, 2007
at 6:28 am
Hmm…I suppose that could trip up the search engines, but maybe not since it’s in the comments here and a blog entry there. Ah well, if you want to delete it and point to the post at my site, that would be fine. I’ll leave it up to you
By: PeakEngineer on February 22, 2007
at 11:16 pm
The part of Peak Oil that worries me the most isn’t survivial, it’s security. I feel fairly confident that I could survive some kind of an economic/energy collapse. If there are aspects of survival I don’t know, I think I could pick them up pretty quickly. I can do basic gardening, there are animals around my house I could hunt, and I’m fairly handy with building things. Granted I’m not as prepared as I should be, but thats beside the point.
I don’t think, however, I could survive if people are trying to raid my house. Let’s say that I plan ahead and make preperations for my survival. I’m sure that we can assume that others won’t make these preperations. Now lets say disaster strikes, I have the food and they don’t; what do you think they are going to do? I presume they will fashion whatever materials they own into weapons, and feed themselves at my expense. I can’t defend my garden 24 hours a day, I also can’t continuously keep people from stealing solar panels off of my roof. If someone(or someones) has/have a shotgun and I have a pitchfork, I’m also at a slight disadvantage defending myself.
What can I do, without resorting to living with a small group of well-armed people in a compound? I would like to prepare myself, for this and other disasters, but I worry that my efforts will be in vain. I don’t care to make myself a target. Reading “Tappon on Survival” by Mel Tappan during the time Katrina hit made it painfully clear that people will do what it takes to survive. Especially when there is a desperate need.
By: Toad on February 23, 2007
at 8:15 pm
I don’t have answers Toad and you bring up some very good points. The survivalists theory among the Peak Oil community doesn’t sit well with me even though I know it’s a possibility if not probability. Being naive, I hope if more of us blog about this, the more we’ll prepare as a society.
I’m trying to understand this from different points of view in hopes of drawing conclusions and forming a plan of action. I like the idea of community and would rather form “contacts” rather than “survival” camps. Perhaps I’ll change my mind after looking into this more.
Tonight I’m researching oil prices in the past 20 years and have a few good sources for information. I’ll write a post about it shortly but it’s another reality check.
There are the practical aspects too that I’m dealing with. I have a son who was interested in relocating to Arizona and I am in the process of convincing him that in the future, 130 degree temperatures might not be a good choice.
Sorry I don’t have more concrete answers for you. I wish there was an answer that would please everyone but at this point, my knowlege is on the kindergarden level and I don’t have very much to offer besides making the issue known.
Further thoughts you have are welcome and appreciated.
By: Cathy on February 24, 2007
at 10:54 am